From a CNN/Time poll taken Aug 24-26th, with a margin of error of 4.0%
No Opinion 1%
No Opinion 2%
Gonna be tough to pin down a ‘spoiler’ in this race, as McKinney, Barr and Nader all poll higher than the margin between the two other guys. And look at the aggregate. Including ‘other’ 13% of the registered voters in Nevada and 14% in Colorado want to vote for a specific 3rd party candidate. Too bad they’re not getting 14% of the coverage, huh?
In a two way race
Polls of NM & PA showed Nader getting 8% & 7%, respectively. (McKinney not asked in PA for obvious reasons, and didn’t register in NM for some reason.) Obama/McCain both lose equally in CO, but Obama takes a serious hit in NV.
Poll can be found here: PDF File